Scaling Methods in Regional Integrated Assessments: From Points Upward and from Global Models Downwards

Authors

  • T.E. Downing Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford
  • R.E. Butterfield Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford
  • M. Bindi DISAT, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
  • R.J. Brooks IACR Long Ashton Research Station, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
  • T.R. Carter Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • R. Delecolle INRA – Unite´ de Bioclimatologie, Avignon, France
  • Z.S. Harnos Department of Mathematics and Informatics, University of Horticulture and Food I
  • P.A. Harrison Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
  • A. Iglesias
  • M. New Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Agronomos, Ciudad Universitaria, Madrid,
  • S. Moss Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
  • J.E. Olesen Department of Crop Physiology & Soil Science, DIAS, Research Centre Foulum, Tjel
  • J.L. Orr Scottish Natural Heritage, Edinburgh, Scotland
  • J. Porter Department of Agricultural Sciences, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural Universit
  • M.A. Semenov IACR Long Ashton Research Station, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
  • J. Wolf Department of Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen Agricultural University

Keywords:

scaling, integrated assessment, climate change, CLIVARA.

Abstract

Scaling methods in regional integrated assessments are often adopted as givens, when in fact there are a range of methods that each have their strengths and weaknesses. Methods such as a site within a polygon, spatially uniform grids, grids with relational data on polygons, interpolation and stochastic spatial models are reviewed for crop-climate modeling of climate change impacts developed in the European Union’s Clivara project. A similar suite of methods for downscaling from global climate models to local conditions exists, and is reviewed. Up- and down-scaling issues relate to availability of data, the level of technical expertise in the project team, validation, uncertainty and risk, stakeholder participation, and modeling of actor-agents. Given the many aims of integrated assessments, no one approach is best.

Downloads

Published

2005-10-30

Issue

Section

Articles