The Syndromes Approach to Scaling: Describing Global Change on an Intermediate Functional Scale
Authors
H.J. Schellnhuber
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, School of
M.K.B Ludeke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
G. Petschel-held
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Keywords:
intermediate functional scale, qualitative modelling, Syndrome, Global Change.
Abstract
A dynamic description of Global Change on an intermediate functional scale on the basis of approximately independent sub-models is elaborated. Sixteen of these sub-models are primarily identified as Hazardous Functional Patterns (HFPs) generating nonsustainable trajectories (Syndromes) of the civilisation/nature system. After an ‘‘idealistic deduction’’ of the main concepts an iterative procedure – formally based on Qualitative Differential Equations – is introduced which allows the systematic generalisation of case study based knowledge to obtain consistent HFPs on a coarser functional scale. The method is illustrated with the Sahel HFP.
