Communicating Uncertainty in Warning Intelligence

Abstract

On November 23, 2021, Dr. David Mandel presented Communicating Uncertainty in Warning Intelligence at the 2021 CASIS West Coast Security Conference. The primary concepts of Dr. Mandel’s presentation centered on the utilization of verbal versus numeric probabilities, the variability in understandings of verbal probabilities, and the relationship between confidence levels and event probabilities. Dr. Mandel’s presentation was followed by a question and answer period directed at a group of panelists allowing the audience and CASIS Vancouver executives to directly engage with the content of each speaker’s presentation.