Power, Proximity, and Priorities: Unpacking China’s Belt and Road Investments

Abstract

This research paper investigates the variation in Chinese diplomatic engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by analyzing why some countries receive more BRI-related investment and construction spending than others. The study tests three key hypotheses: that Chinese spending is influenced by (1) access to natural resources, (2) the desire for East Asian regional dominance, and (3) the strategic value of market access. Using data from the China Global Investment Tracker (AEI), BRI-related spending from 2013 to 2022 was aggregated for a representative sample of 21 countries across multiple regions. Countries were categorized based on their alignment with one of the three hypotheses. Comparative analysis reveals that East Asian countries received the highest proportion of total BRI spending—44%—suggesting that regional dominance in East Asia is a significant driver of Chinese BRI diplomacy. While natural resource availability and market access are influential, they are secondary to China's strategic goals in its immediate neighborhood. The findings support the notion that the BRI serves not only economic but also geopolitical objectives, particularly in strengthening China’s position in Asia. This study contributes to broader discussions about the BRI’s implications for global power dynamics and international development policy.